WeatherWebb

Making the weather more accessible

Sunshine for most, but cloudier in northern Scotland and south-east England

Today: Sunday 22nd March 2015
Drizzle and cloud in Scotland will move away north-eastwards leaving it mostly dry with spells of sunshine across the UK, but it will remain cloudier in the south-east.

28

Tomorrow: Monday 23rd March 2015
Cloud and patchy rain will spread south-eastwards, followed by sunny spells and scattered showers. Chilly.

39

The Next Few Day

Lingering rain clearing on Tuesday to leave sunny spells and scattered wintry showers. Showers will ease on Wednesday leaving spells of sunshine. Rain spreading east on Thursday.

weather_webb_sun_sleet

No Comments »

What is the spring equinox?

As I was working at the weekend, I wrote a blog on MeteoGroup’s WeatherCast website about the spring equinox that occurred last night. You can read my story here: What is the spring equinox?

'Soldiers at Stonehenge' Exhibition

You can find a list of my other stories on the WeatherCast website here: Published articles

No Comments »

A fair amount of cloud, but some sunshine too, particularly in the west

Today: Saturday 21st March 2015
A lot of cloud in England. Elsewhere, spells of sunshine, but cloud will thicken across Scotland.

28

Tomorrow: Sunday 22nd March 2015
A lot of cloud in Scotland with drizzle. Elsewhere, dry with spells of sunshine, although cloudier in the south-east at first.

28

The Next Few Day

Showery rain edging south-east on Monday, followed by sunshine and showers. Lingering rain clearing on Tuesday to leave sunny spells and showers. Spells of sunshine and scattered showers on Wednesday.

39

No Comments »

A fair amount of cloud with rain moving into Scotland

Today: Thursday 19th March 2015
Rather cloudy across England and Wales, but some sunshine is expected in the north and west. Increasingly cloudy in Scotland with light rain moving in.

39

Tomorrow: Friday 20th March 2015
Overnight fog lifting to leave sunny spells and variable cloud, but a few showers are possible in the east and north.

39

The Next Few Day

Sunny spells and variable cloud on Saturday. Largely dry and fine on Sunday, but rain will move into Scotland. Showery rain edging south-east on Monday, followed by showers.

39

No Comments »

Why do weather forecasts vary so much?

There are many different sources for checking the UK weather, whether it be reading the paper, checking an app, watching the weather forecast on the TV or listening to the radio as shown below, but it’s been noticed recently that the forecasts can often be very different!

Example of weather forecast sources

Example of weather forecast sources

The 4 main weather forecasting companies in the UK are the Met Office, MeteoGroup, MetDesk and WSI, which supply forecasts and data to many of the other companies. For example the Met Office supplies the BBC with data and MeteoGroup supplies Channel 4. In the last few months, more and more people have been asking why the weather forecast differs so much depending on where you look at it. For example Liam Dutton from Channel 4 tweeted at the beginning of March that the forecast varied depending on which app you looked at, as shown below. In fact on Saturday 7th March it was a gorgeously sunny day and the maximum observed temperature was 16.1C in Greater London!

Liam Dutton's tweets

Liam Dutton’s tweets

The reason the forecast varies so much between the sources is because different companies look at different weather models. At MeteoGroup we have access to a number of models such as those shown below and then the forecasters analyse these models at the start of a shift;

  • ECMWF
  • EURO4
  • UKMO Global
  • KNMI (HiRLAM)
  • GFS
  • WRF

It is likely the other companies have access to these or at least some of these models as well, but they are likely to weight their forecast on a specific model. For example, the Met Office spends a lot of money developing their own models, such as EURO4 and the UKMO Global model, so they are likely to use that model on a more regular basis. However, by only looking at one or two models you decrease how accurate your forecast will be as because the weather is a chaotic system; if the starting conditions are wrong then it is likely the forecast will be wrong.

A key example of when this happened was on Tuesday 17th and Wednesday 18th February 2015 when the Met Office/BBC were forecasting it to be largely cloudy and cold across England as that’s what their models suggested. However, MeteoGroup looked at other models such as ECMWF which suggested it would be largely clear and warm with plenty of sunshine. In fact both days saw spells of sunshine across England and it was an unseasonably warm day. It became very obvious that the Met Office forecast was wrong when the BBC weather presenter showed the current satellite image with largely clear skies at the beginning of their forecast, but then went to the forecast for the same time and it was completely cloudy… It can often be difficult for the lead forecaster to decide on the forecast scenario if the models contradict each other!

It is important to remember that weather forecasting is a science and that it is on average only 87% accurate. The models we have access to now are incredible, but as I mentioned before, the weather is a chaotic system and therefore it can always change, potentially just because a butterfly flapped his wings.

If you’re after a new app as you’re fed up of the forecast being wrong, I’d recommend MeteoGroup’s app WeatherPro!!

2015-03-18 13.49.45

No Comments »

Dry with sunny spells and variable cloud

Today: Wednesday 18th March 2015
Fog lifting to leave a dry day with spells of sunshine and variable cloud, the cloud most frequent in eastern areas.

28

Tomorrow: Thursday 19th March 2015
Rather cloudy in south-east England. Sunny spells for the rest of England and Wales. Increasingly cloudy in Scotland with patchy rain.

39

The Next Few Day

A fair amount of cloud on Friday with showery rain, but brighter in the south. Sunny spells and variable cloud on Saturday with just one or two showers in the east. Largely dry and fine on Sunday, but rain will move into Scotland.

39

No Comments »

Cloud and showery rain for most, but brighter in the south

Today: Tuesday 17th March 2015
A fair amount of cloud across the UK with outbreaks of light rain and drizzle, but turning drier and sunnier from the south.

39

Tomorrow: Wednesday 18th March 2015
Predominately dry and warm with spells of sunshine, but it will be cloudier in eastern areas.

28

The Next Few Day

Rather cloudy on Thursday, but some sunny spells may break through. Rain spreading across the north on Friday. Sunny spells and variable cloud on Saturday with just one or two showers.

39

No Comments »

A lot of cloud with outbreaks of rain spreading west

Today: Monday 16th March 2015
Chilly with a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain spreading westwards.

18

Tomorrow: Tuesday 17th March 2015
Some sunny breaks, but also a lot of cloud with scattered showers or longer spells of light rain.

39

The Next Few Day

Mostly dry with variable cloud on Wednesday. Spells of sunshine on Thursday, but rain will move into Scotland. Rain spreading across the north on Friday.

39

No Comments »

Dull with patchy drizzle

Today: Sunday 15th March 2015
Another cool day with plenty of cloud and patchy drizzle spreading west. Pockets of fog may linger.

18

Tomorrow: Monday 16th March 2015
Rain and cloud will spread westwards allowing some sunny spells to develop in the south-east.

39

The Next Few Day

Turning brighter on Tuesday, but showers are possible. Mostly dry with variable cloud on Wednesday. Spells of sunshine on Thursday, but rain will move into Scotland.

39

No Comments »

Chilly with a lot of cloud

Today: Saturday 14th March 2015
A chilly day with a lot of cloud, but some sunny breaks will develop, mainly in western areas.

28

Tomorrow: Sunday 15th March 2015
A rather dull day with pockets of fog lingering and patchy drizzle spreading west.

18

The Next Few Day

Rain spreading west on Monday. Turning brighter on Tuesday, but showers are possible. Mostly dry with variable cloud on Wednesday.

39

No Comments »